Buxton, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS61 KGYX 161926
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Strong to severe storms continue into the late afternoon hours.
A coastal flood statement has been issued for high astronomical
tides tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Strong to severe storms cross through the early evening
hours with a passing cold front.

2. High astronomical tides bring water levels to near flood
stage again tonight.

3. A seasonable day follows behind the front for Friday.

4. Seasonable summertime conditions expected through the
weekend and into next week, with at least a couple of chances
for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible into the
early evening hours as a cold front crosses through northern New
England. Strong winds remain the primary concern with these
storms. As we`ve seen today, even widespread sub-severe winds
are capable knocking down trees and causing power outages. So
this threat continues into the late afternoon before pushing
offshore by early evening.

A seasonably cool night follows behind the front tonight, with
lows in the upper 40s across the north, to mid 50s in most other
locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

One more night of high astronomical tides bring water levels to
near minor flood stage again tonight. With the astro tides
starting to lower, water levels tonight should be lower than the
last couple of nights.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

A seasonable and dry day is expected on Friday as broad high
pressure builds in from the southwest. A deepening trough across
northeast Canada keeps a dry and relatively cool airmass
streaming in on a west-northwesterly flow. Widespread highs in
the 70s to low 80s are expected, and wildfire smoke looks to be
directed south of northern New England for the day tomorrow.

Friday night looks similar to tonight with lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s from north to south. Clouds begin to increase
during the overnight hours tomorrow night as moisture arrives
from the west. Any shower activity looks to hold off until after
daybreak Saturday morning

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
The weekend should both start and end dry, but in between,
we`ll see a round of showers along with a chance of
thunderstorms. There`s still some timing differences among model
solutions, but the trend is for increasing rain chances from
west to east in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday as a
500mb shortwave and associated surface low and cold front
approach from the west. Showers should then taper off late
Saturday night into Sunday morning behind the cold front.
However, there may be a few showers linger into Sunday
afternoon, but these should be mainly in the mountains. As far
as amounts, ensembles support mostly 0.25" to 0.50" south of the
mountains and 0.50" to 1.00" in the mountains. High
temperatures will be generally in the mid 70s to low 80s,
although southern NH may see some mid 80s on Saturday.

High pressure follows for Monday bringing a dry day, but shortly
after that, there`s pretty good consensus among the global models
in a 500mb trough crossing the Great Lakes and sending a cold front
toward New England around the middle of next week. This will bring
the next chance for widespread shower activity and maybe a few
storms. This is supported by a strong signal within the ensembles
centered around Wednesday for the higher precip chances (but
could be more Tuesday-Wedesday or Wednesday-Thursday at this
point). Otherwise, temperatures remain fairly seasonable with
model consensus being in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Brief restrictions in heavy showers and a few thunderstorms
continue into the late afternoon across southern terminals. VFR
then returns tonight, and prevails through tomorrow night.
Nighttime valley fog will be possible Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night: Saturday begins VFR, but then chances
for MVFR to IFR restrictions increases later in the day along
with SHRA and possible TSRA. The higher chances for IFR (and
possibly lower) arrive Saturday evening into Saturday night.

Sunday: Conditions expected to return to VFR in the morning, except
lingering MVFR ceilings and SHRA possible at HIE.

Monday: VFR expected.

Tuesday: MVFR to IFR possible as chances for SHRA and a few TSRA
increase through the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Squalls and thunderstorms continue across the waters into the early
evening hours. Fair conditions then return late tonight and continue
through Friday night with broad high pressure building in.

Saturday-Thursday...SCA conditions are likely on Saturday and
Saturday night as south to southwest winds increase ahead of a
cold front. The front crosses early Sunday morning, shifting
winds to W and NW. These will likely subside under SCA levels,
but seas could stay above 5 ft much of the day. High pressure
builds in for Monday, keeping conditions under SCA levels, and
then the next front brings another chance at SCA conditions
toward the middle of next week (be Tues-Weds or Weds-Thurs).

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs